
Warsh's Hawkish Jackson Hole Speech Spurs 2-Year Yield Jump to 4.31%
Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's hawkish Jackson Hole speech on August 28 drove the 2-year Treasury yield up 12 bps to 4.31%, and market odds of a September rate hike surged to 55.7%.
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Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's hawkish Jackson Hole speech on August 28 drove the 2-year Treasury yield up 12 bps to 4.31%, and market odds of a September rate hike surged to 55.7%.
The Federal Reserve kept interest rates steady at 3.5%-3.75% with an 8-4 vote, the most dissents since 1992. Kevin Warsh is expected to become the next Fed chair as Jerome Powell remains a governor.

Federal Reserve officials divided over monetary policy after Iran ceasefire. Markets see rate-cut odds double, but inflation threatens hikes. Money market rates hit 4.22% —highest in recent memory.
Wall Street has closed its fifth consecutive losing week, the longest sustained decline since the Iran war began, as the Dow, S&P 500, and Nasdaq all hit year lows amid mounting inflation concerns.

Goldman Sachs economists warn the Iran war has elevated the risk of a U.S. recession within 12 months, as higher oil prices push inflation to 3.1% while growth slows simultaneously.